The 2017 Monster Energy Supercross season will come to a conclusion Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nevada, but not before two more championships are handed out.
All eyes are on the thrilling 450SX bout between Red Bull KTM’s Ryan Dungey and Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Eli Tomac. The two enter Sam Boyd Stadium separated by nine points – advantage Dungey – following a dramatic race one week ago in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Tomac was leading when a crash relegated him to an eighth-place finish, while Dungey raced away with the victory.
Here’s a look at the title-clinching scenarios for the title combatants:
Dungey wins championship if…
- If Dungey finishes fourth or better, he wins the championship regardless of where Tomac finishes.
Tomac wins championship if…
- If Tomac wins and Dungey finishes fifth or worse, Tomac will win his first career 450SX title.
- If Tomac finishes second, Dungey would need to finish seventh or better to clinch the title.
- If Tomac finishes third, Dungey would need to finish ninth or better to clinch the title.
- If Tomac finishes fourth, Dungey would need to finish 11th or better to clinch the title.
- If Tomac finishes fifth, Dungey would need to finish 13th or better to clinch the title.
- If Tomac finishes sixth, Dungey would need to finish 14th or better to clinch the title (& so on).
250SX East Championship Scenario
Lost in the fray is an ultra-close title race in the Eastern Regional 250SX Class, where three riders are separated by just one point. Jordon Smith enters the Dave Coombs East/West Showdown on 160 points, while Zach Osborne and Joey Savatgy each sit at 159 points.
As for title-clinching scenarios, it’s pretty straightforward between Smith, Osborne and Savatgy. Whoever finishes higher inside the top five will walk away with the championship. Should they all finish outside of the top five, where positions are separated by one point instead of two, things start to change a bit.
Since Smith holds the tiebreaker over Savatgy, all he has to do is finish within one point of Savatgy and have Osborne finish behind him. This would tie Smith and Savatgy in the points and Smith’s two wins give him the tiebreaker over Savatgy’s one win.
Smith doesn’t hold the tiebreaker over Osborne, so this scenario doesn’t apply there. For example, if Osborne finishes fifth and Smith finishes sixth, they tie in points and Osborne wins the title providing Savatgy doesn’t finish further ahead.
If they somehow manage to finish 20th-22nd, then Smith would win the championship even if he finishes behind Savatgy and Osborne, as positions 20 through 22 are awarded one point per position.
And for Adam Cianciarulo fans, he’s still mathematically eligible, although he faces a 14-point deficit. Should he win, he’ll need Smith to finish 11th or worse, Osborne 10th or worse and Savatgy ninth or worse.